Lessons I learned from my dad

I just spent 3 days with my dad in Phoenix.  He is now 81 years of age.  My visit caused me to reflect on things he taught me.  I thought I would share some of his teachings with you:

It's not a man's stuff that matters, it's his stuffing

Just because something costs more, doesn't make it better

When you are late for an appointment, you are at a total disadvantage

The older you get, the faster time moves

You can outwork people to the top, because they will quit

When you are not working on your craft, someone else is and flying past you

Plan ahead for a rainy day because you never know when the clouds will appear

Money spent is gone forever.  Money invested turns into more money

Let your kids earn their rewards because that's how the real world works

It's okay for a man to cry

Love people while you still have the opportunity, no one lasts forever

There are few things worse in life than a liar

As you approach the end of life, do it with grace, dignity, and gratitude

The time you spend in the company of your children is time well spent indeed

Thanks, Dad!  Now for a tissue…...

Markets Have Calmed

It appears that the markets have calmed down for the moment.  The Dow and S&P 500 are up slightly, while the Nasdaq is lagging a bit.  This is to be expected after the meteoric rise the last two days.  A bit of stabilization would be healthy for the marketplace.

This Is More Like It

Markets providing a nice follow through. All indices are up over 1%. Great start to the trading day.

Strong Finish Gives Hope For Tomorrow

We had a nice strong finish to the market today.  Hopefully, we get follow through tomorrow.

Futures Point Higher

Stock futures point higher in anticipation of the Fed minutes that come out at 2:00 pm this afternoon.  With oil dropping further and Europe down, I'm not sure if the gains will hold.

Markets Were Down, Then Way Up, Now Moderately Higher

U.S. stocks jumped after a lack luster open today, erasing sharp losses as the price of oil reversed higher and as investors considered generally healthy indicators on the U.S. economy against global concerns.

After falling to lows not seen since the spring of 2009, crude futures for January delivery, on Tuesday fell to a low of $53.60 a barrel, then shoot up $1.24 to a high of $57.15 a barrel, and were lately up 16 cents, or 3 percent, to $56.07 a barrel.

New home construction in the U.S. topped a million on an annualized rate in November, while housing starts fell 1.6 percent and building permits declined 5.2 percent last month.
An industry report on Tuesday had the U.S. manufacturing sector continuing to expand in December but its growth rate at an 11-year low.

Equities around the globe had declined as Russia vowed further action to stabilize its markets after an unexpected interest rate hike and a measure of factory activity in China dropped to a seven-month low in December.

The Dow is currently up 118.

The S&P 500 has advanced 11.

Nasdaq is up 7.5 points.

It's critical to market direction that the head of steam that was built this morning does not dissipate this afternoon. I'll be watching.

Markets Take Another Beating

It's getting ugly out there!  U.S. stocks finished lower on Monday, topping off a wild ride that had the Dow Jones Industrial Average trading in a more than 300-point range on either side of neutral as investors monitored the price of oil.

The Dow moved up and down more than 100 points during Monday's session, and event that last occurred a year and a half ago, on June 12, 2013.

After falling to a low of $55.87 a barrel, crude oil futures for January delivery dropped $1.90 to $55.91 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its lowest closing level since May 2009.

After surging 78 percent last week, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, a measure of investor uncertainty known as the VIX, fell 3.1 percent to 20.42.

PetSmart gained after agreeing to be purchased for about $8.25 billion by a group led by BC Partners.

Equities offered muted reaction to a gauge of home builder sentiment falling a point  in December after a large jump last month.

A Federal Reserve report had industrial production rebounding in November, after a Fed measure of manufacturing in the New York region dropped in December.

Turning negative after a 122-point jump, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell as much as 165 points, and ended at 17,180.84, down 99.99 points, or 0.6 percent, with McDonald's leading blue-chip losses that included 25 of 30 components.

The S&P 500 declined 12.70 points, or 0.6 percent, to 1,989.63, with utilities pacing losses that extended to all 10 major industry groups.

The Nasdaq dropped 48.44 points, or 1 percent, to 4,605.16.

For every share climbing, more than three fell on the New York Stock Exchange, where nearly 980 million shares traded. Composite volume cleared 4.3 billion.

The U.S. dollar gained against other global currencies and dollar-denominated commodities including gold and oil fell.

Gold futures for February delivery shed $14.80, or 1.2 percent, to $1,207.70 an ounce.

The yield on the 10 year Treasury note used to figure mortgage rates and other consumer loans rose 3 basis points to 2.1158 percent.

Markets Can't Hold Early Gains

U.S. stocks climbed this morning, with energy companies leading Wall Street's bounce back from its worst week in more than two years, amid a round of corporate deals. Then they gave back their winning. Just like gamblers in Vegas, this is not a good sign going into this trading week.

PetSmart gained after agreeing to be purchased for about $8.25 billion by a group led by BC Partners. Emerson Electric rose as it sold a power-transmission unit to Regal-Beloit for $1.4 billion.
Equities offered muted reaction to a gauge of home builder sentiment falling a point in December after a large jump last month.

A Federal Reserve report had industrial production rebounding in November, after a Fed measure of manufacturing in the New York region dropped in December.

At the moment, the Dow is off 7 points.

The S&P 500 is down a point.

Nasdaq has lost 15.

The U.S. dollar gained against other global currencies and dollar-denominated commodities including gold and oil fell.

Crude oil futures for January delivery dropped 56 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $57.26 a barrel; gold futures for February delivery shed $12.40, or 1 percent, to $1,210.10 an ounce.

The yield on the 10 year Treasury note used to figure mortgage rates and other consumer loans rose 4 basis points to 2.1219 percent.

Fasten your seatbelt!

My Son Graduates College Today!

My oldest son graduates college today.  One moment, he was entering kindergarten and the next he was becoming a man.  Cherish every second with your kids because their childhood goes past in the blink of an eye.

A buddy asked me, "what do you think our job is as a parent (our parents would have said food on the table and a roof over our head)?  For what it's worth, here was my response:

To love unconditionally
To create a sense of security
To build self esteem
To build character
To teach values
To build independence

If your child leaves your home loving themselves, loving others, knows right from wrong, and has the life skills to survive on their own, you get a passing grade.

I'm off to watch the ceremony, a very proud dad.

Market Gets Slammed, Dow Loses 300 Points

U.S. stocks declined on Friday, with benchmark indexes headed for sizable weekly losses, as crude's ongoing slide rattled investors.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, one measure of investor uncertainty, rose 1.2 percent to 20.32, up 72 percent this week.

Oil prices fell further after the International Energy Agency reduced its outlook for global demand. 

Equities around the globe dropped on Friday after November Chinese factory production slowed more than forecast.

U.S. wholesale prices declined 0.2 percent drop in the producer price index in November after a 0.2 percent rise the previous month.

Adobe Systems gained after the software maker said it would acquire stock-photo company Fotalia for $800 million and posted quarterly results that beat expectations.

Stocks only briefly trimmed losses after a measure of consumer sentiment in December exceeded expectations, rising to an eight-year high.

After a 284-point fall, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was lately down 299.23 points, or 1.7 percent, to 17,297.11, with International Business Machines  leading blue-chip losses that extended to 28 of 30 components.

The S&P 500 shed 32.66 points, or 1.7 percent, to 2,002.64, with materials falling the most among its 10 major industry groups, with all in negative terrain.

The Nasdaq declined 54.57 points, or 1.16 percent, to 4,653.60.

For every share rising, three fell on the New York Stock Exchange, where 627 million shares traded as of 3:45 p.m. Eastern. Composite volume neared 3.4 billion.

The U.S. dollar declined against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners and dollar-denominated commodities including gold and oil fell.

Crude futures for January delivery declined $2.14, or 3.6 percent, to $57.84 a barrel, settling below $58 a barrel for the first time since May 2009. The February gold contract fell $3.10, or 0.3 percent, to $1,222.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The yield on the 10 year Treasury note used to figure mortgage rates and other consumer loans dropped 7 basis points to 2.0984 percent.

The scariest part of today is that the markets were falling as the trading day was closing.  At least we have the weekend to sort things out.

Markets Predictably Open Down

U.S. stocks are down this morning, with benchmark indexes headed for sizable weekly losses, as crude's slide continued and after Chinese industrial production came in below expectations.  When the markets lost much of their gains at the end of the day, yesterday, this open was predicable.  

Oil prices fell further after the International Energy Agency reduced its outlook for global demand. 

Equities around the globe dropped after November Chinese factory production slowed more than forecast.

U.S. wholesale prices declined 0.2 percent drop in the producer price index in November after a 0.2 percent rise the previous month.

A report at 9:55 a.m. Eastern could illustrate consumer confidence improved in December.

Adobe Systems gained after the software maker said it would acquire stock-photo company Fotalia for $800 million and posted quarterly results that beat expectations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 108.21 points, or 0.6 percent, to 17,488.13.  It's now down 74.

The S&P 500 shed 11.60 points, or 0.6 percent, to 2,023.73.  

The Nasdaq declined 32.35 points, or 0.7 percent, to 4,675.90.  The Nasdaq is now only down about 14.

For every share rising, about six fell on the New York Stock Exchange, where 57 million shares traded as of 9:35 a.m. Eastern. Composite volume hit 152 million.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, one measure of investor uncertainty, has surged nearly 70 percent this week.

The U.S. dollar declined against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners and dollar-denominated commodities including gold and oil fell.

Crude futures for January delivery declined $1.11, or 1.9 percent, to $58.81 a barrel, and the February gold contract fell $3.10, or 0.2 percent, to $1,222.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note used to figure mortgage rates and other consumer loans dropped four basis points to 2.1211 percent.

Estate Planning

I am getting ready to shoot a video on estate planning.  I thought my notes might be of interest so some of you.

Planning Your Estate

     Estate planning is not just for the rich

          We all have an estate

     Inheritance tax rates

          Top rate is 40%

          First $5.43 million excluded from estate taxes in 2015

     Basic estate planning tools

          Benefits of a will

               Select your heirs

               Make gifts

               Name an executor

               Appoint guardians

               Specify funeral wishes

               Pet arrangements

               Reduce legal expenses

               Avoids in-fighting

          Financial power of attorney 

               Manage your financial affairs

                    Avoids conservatorship court process

          Living will

               What to do if you are placed on life support or can't speak for yourself

                   Revocable

     Trusts

          Four parts

               Grantor

               Trustee

               Property

               Beneficiaries

         Revocable living trust

              Can be modified or terminated

              Takes effect upon death

              You keep control over assets

              Avoids probate

                   Months, sometimes years to settle

                   3-5% of estate

         A-B or bypass trust

              Money left to spouse is not taxed

                   When surviving spouse dies, there are tax consequences if their estate exceeds exclusion amount

              A-B trust maximizes exclusion

              Trust income can be used by surviving spouse

     Marital transfers

          Unlimited without gift or estate taxes

     Gifting

          $14,000 per person, per year

     Charitable contributions

     Irrevocable life insurance trust

          Trust pays premiums

          Proceeds are not taxable to estate

     Family limited partnership

          Helps with succession of assets

          Taxes can be shifted to lower tax bracket members

     Qualified Family Owned Business Interests Exclusion

          Family owned businesses avoid estate taxes

Markets Roar, Then Meow

U.S. stocks advanced on Thursday, cutting weekly losses, but euphoria over increased retail sales in November faded as oil fell to another five-year low and renewed worries of a government shutdown.  The way the market gave up its gains throughout the day, concerns me over the market's near term direction.
After spiking more than 50 percent during the last three sessions, the CBOE Volatility Index on Thursday fell 1.4 percent to 18.27.
After a 225-point jump, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was lately up 131.71 points, or 0.7 percent, at 17,664.86, with Walt Disney leading blue-chip gains that included 28 of its 30 components.
The S&P 500 added 16.24 points, or 0.8 percent, to 2,042.38, with utilities and consumer discretionary the best performing of its 10 major industry groups, all of which advanced.
The Nasdaq gained 37.01 points, or 0.8 percent, to 4,721.04.
For every four shares falling, roughly five rose on the New York Stock Exchange, where 579 million shares traded as of 3:45 p.m. Eastern. Composite volume neared 3.3 billion.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, oil futures for January delivery fell 99 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $59.95 a barrel, its lowest since July 2009.  Gold futures for February delivery dropped $3.80, or 0.3 percent, to $1,225.60 an ounce.
The U.S. dollar  gained against other global currencies and the yield on the 10 year Treasury note added 2 basis points to 2.1850 percent.

Is BP A Buy?

BP shareholders have certainly had their fair share of reasons to dump their stock in recent years. The company's tragic spill in the Gulf of Mexico a few years ago was not only a human and wildlife tragedy, but it has cost the company billions upon billions of dollars, including payments to pretty much anyone with their hand out. Despite these developments BP has soldiered on, continuing to earn billions of dollars each year through its robust, diversified business that continues to impress. And after the waterfall decline in oil prices this year, BP shares are at their 52 week lows, offering a potential entry point for longs.

I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the enormous dividend BP pays as it is the main reason to own the stock right now. The company recently raised its payout to 60 cents per quarter, good for a gargantuan 6.3% yield at today's price. This provides investors with REIT-like income from an oil and gas company that is beaten down and out of favor. Not only does the yield entice me right now but the valuation does as well. BP offers a rare combination of a business with a strong moat, a 6.3% yield and a forward earnings multiple of only 10.

China To Increase Lending

China has told banks to issue more loans by the end of the year to lift flagging economic growth. The People's Bank of China will now permit banks to lend more than 75% of their deposits and allow banks to lend a record 10T yuan ($1.6T) for all of 2014, up from a previous target of 9.5T yuan, Reuters reports. The move comes just one day after Chinese inflation slipped to a five-year low and follows last month's surprise cut in interest rates.  

It seems that China has escaped the feared 'asset bubble' and managed their way out of potential hyper-inflation.  That is positive for the world economy.

Two Potential Pullback Trades

Since I'm not convinced that the bull market is over, I'm looking for stocks that are still trending higher, but have pulled back the last few days.  Two hit my radar this morning, 

The first is Altria Group (MO).  Among other things, they are paying a big fat 4.1% dividend and were headed nearly straight up until the markets started responding to falling oil prices.

The second is Waste Management (WM), another nice dividend payer at 3%.  

I will be looking at call options, 3-4 months out, with deltas of .75.

B of A On OPEC

The Opec oil cartel no longer exists in any meaningful sense and crude prices will slump to $50 a barrel over the coming months as market forces shake out the weakest producers, Bank of America has warned.

Another Rocky Start To The Trading Day

U.S. stocks are down for the third morning in a row, furthering the week's losses, as the price of crude fell to multi-year lows as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its demand outlook for next year.

OPEC reduced its estimate for 2015 by roughly 300,000 barrels a day, with the cartel saying the effect of the 40 percent drop in prices on supply and demand is uncertain.

The CBOE Volatility Index, a measure of investor uncertainty known as the VIX, jumped 9.2 percent to 16.26.

Toll Brothers edged lower after the home builder reported mixed quarterly results; Yum Brands fell after the operator of Taco Bell and other fast-food brands cut is profit outlook for the year for a second time; Costco Wholesale climbed after the warehouse-club operator posted a better-than-expected quarterly profit and GlaxoSmithKline declined after Bank of America Merrill Lynch downgraded its stock to underperform from neutral.

After a 131-point drop, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was more recently off 113.64 points, or 0.6 percent, to 17,687.56, with Chevron and Exxon Mobil leading blue-chip losses that extended to 21 of 30 components.

The S&P 500 dropped 11.68 points, or 0.6 percent, to 2,048.14, with the energy sector hardest hit and utilities the best performing among its 10 major industry groups.

The Nasdaq fell 18.98 points, or 0.4 percent, to 4,747.48. 

For every share rising, nearly three fell on the New York Stock Exchange, where 117 million shares traded as of 10:00 a.m. Eastern. Composite volume approached 460 million.

After falling as low as $61.87 a barrel, its lowest since July 17, 2009, Crude futures for January delivery were lately off $1.89, or 3 percent, to $61.93 a barrel; the February gold contract rose 70 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $1,232.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Government Budget Deal Reached

A final agreement has been reached on a $1.1T U.S. spending bill that would prevent a government shutdown at midnight on Thursday and fund every government agency but the Department of Homeland Security through next September. The bill largely keeps fiscal 2015 domestic spending unchanged, but as the deadline loomed, a number of policy provisions were negotiated into the measure, including easing of regulations on the environment and financial derivatives trading.

McDonald's Looking Out Of Step

I know that if you are like many investors, McDonald's (MCD) is a part of your core portfolio. Therefore, I wanted to provide this brief commentary on the company and their prospects. 

McDonald's reported global comps for November that fell short of expectations. Global comps of -2.2% missed consensus by -2% and decelerated further from the previous month when we saw -0.5% in comp sales. Both the US and Asia remain weak with a -4% decline in comps, highlighting the competitive environment in the US while Asia, particularly China, continues to be mired by the supplier scandal that has been weighing on comp sales in the country.
Pessimism is building into the Q4 earnings as management expects margins to be pressured due to weak topline growth and wage inflation. Moreover, the scandal involving the Chinese supplier would place $0.07-$0.10 downside impact on EPS, and this is in-line with the prior discussion. Finally, strengthening of the US dollar is likely to drag on the overall result with a $0.07 to $0.09 impact on EPS. My view is bearish on MCD as I believe the company's low-end focus places it at a disadvantage relative to the high-end focused peers such as Starbucks and Chipotle. The business seems to be out of step with what consumers are looking for today; a healthy selection in a trendy atmosphere. McDonald's offers neither.

Markets Down Sharply For Second Day In A Row

U.S. stocks are down sharply this morning, extending losses into a second session, as Wall Street echoed a global rout that came as China toughened collateral rules for short-term loans and oil wavered after bouncing back from a five-year low.

Erasing gains, West Texas Intermediate fell 0.2 percent and the Shanghai Composite Index tanked.

Moving to propel local governments from using hazy financing instruments to raise funds, China stepped up its efforts at creating a more transparent municipal bond market.

Autozone jumped after the auto-parts retailer reported quarterly profit and revenue above estimates; H&R Block fell after the tax-preparation firm reported an adjusted quarterly loss that 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 162.06 points, or 0.9 percent, to 17,690.49, with Verizon Communications leading blue-chip losses that extended to 29 of 30 components.

The S&P 500 shed 23.20 points, or 1.1 percent, to 2,037.11, with telecommunications the leading laggard among its 10 major industry groups.

The Nasdaq dropped 63.63 points, or 1.3 percent, to 4,677.06. larger than expected.

The U.S. dollar edged lower against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners; the yield on the 10 year Treasury note fell 4 basis points to 2.2165 percent.

Dow Off Triple Digits

U.S. stocks fell sharply on Monday, with benchmarks retreating from records and the energy sector slammed as the price of crude fell below $63 a barrel for the first time since July 2009.

Crude for January delivery fell $2.79, or 4.2 percent, to settle at $63.05 a barrel.

McDonald's fell after the fast-food chain reported global comparable sales declined 2.2 percent last month. Merck & Co. said it would acquire Cubist Pharmaceuticals in a deal valued at $9.5 billion.

Apple fell sharply, with the consumer-technology maker leading the technology sector lower.

Chinese overseas shipments climbed 4.7 percent from a year earlier in November, the customs administration said. 

Separately, Japan's economy contracted more than anticipated in the third quarter.

After a 154-point drop, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.6 percent, McDonald's and Chevron leading blue-chip losses that extended to 19 of 30 components.

The S&P 500 fell 14.93 points, or 0.7 percent, to 2,060.44, with energy and materials falling hardest and utilities and financials faring best among its 10 major industry groups.

The Nasdaq shed 40.06 points, or 0.8 percent, to 4,740.69.

For every share rising, more than two dropped on the New York Stock Exchange, where 743 million shares traded. Composite volume neared 3.7 billion.

The U.S. dollar declined against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners; the yield on the 10 year Treasury note fell 5 basis points to 2.2552 percent.

Gold futures for February delivery rose $4.50, or 0.4 percent, to $1,194.90 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

I Just Took This Trade

Want to take advantage of theta (time decay of an option)?  Here is a trade I just entered:

STO  SPX  2030  Dec 12  Put

BTO  SPX  2025  Dec 12  Put

.15 Credit or 3% for 5 days.

96.97% probability of max profits.

Stocks Open Lower This Morning

U.S. stocks are off this morning, with benchmarks retreating from records, as trade numbers from China came in below expectations and oil companies were knocked by the falling price of crude.
Chinese overseas shipments climbed 4.7 percent from a year earlier in November, the customs administration said.
Separately, Japan's economy contracted more than anticipated in the third quarter.
McDonald's fell in early New York trading after the fast-food chain reported global comparable sales declined 2.2 percent last month. Merck & Co. said it would acquire Cubist Pharmaceuticals in a deal valued at $9.5 billion.
Oil companies were under pressure as crude dropped to another five-year low.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened about 0.3 percent in decline.
The S&P 500 fell 0.3 percent.
The Nasdaq dropped more than 0.3 percent.
The U.S. dollar declined against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners; the yield on the 10 year Treasury note fell 2 basis points to 2.2924 percent.
Gold futures for February delivery rose $7.20, or 0.6 percent.

Marathon Patent Group Breaks Out

On Friday, December 5th, Marathon Patent Group (MARA) shares traded to a new all-time record high, closing at $17.66. Not only was the close a record, but it did so on volume of 215,811 shares, representing one of the stock's highest volume trading days, a staggering 5X average daily volume. The stock is in a full breakout mode with no overhead resistance, a true "blue sky" breakout.

Apple Sales Look Strong Next Quarter

UBS' Evidence Lab Phone Monitor, which attempts to gauge iPhone demand based on Google search activity, forecasts 70.9 million iPhone sales for FQ1, well above the 64 million consensus.  More good news for Apple.

Another Strong Day In The Markets

U.S. stocks rose on Friday, lifting benchmarks into uncharted terrain, as investors embraced a stronger-than-forecast November payrolls report as backing the view the economy can handle rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2015.

U.S. employers created 321,000 jobs last month, the largest gain since January 2012, and topped the most cheery estimates. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at a six-year low of 5.8 percent, and hourly earnings increased 0.4 percent.

Stock-index futures reversed direction several times in the wake of the data, and benchmark Treasury yields shot higher.

The initial reaction in equities is the market's "futile attempt to say this means the Fed is going to move earlier, and you should see yields trending higher in an improving economy," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities, referring to the notion that the report could move up the timing of Fed's rate increases.

Another report Friday had orders for U.S. factory goods falling 0.7 percent in October.

After a 91-point advance lifted it to a intraday record and within 9 points of the psychological milestone of 18,000, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 58.69 points, or 0.3 percent, to 17,958.79, with JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs Group leading blue-chip gains that included 20 of 30 components.

Also climbing to a record, the S&P 500 advanced 3.45 points, or 0.2 percent, to 2,075.37, with financials pacing sector gains, as higher interest rates would boost bank earnings, and energy performed most poorly among its 10 major industry groups.

The Nasdaq added 11.32 points, or 0.2 percent, to 4,780.56.

The CBOE Volatility Index, a measure of investor uncertainty, fell 4.4 percent to 11.84.  Remember when it was over 20 and I suggested buying puts?  Hope you listened.

For every seven shares that fell, eight rose on on the New York Stock Exchange, where nearly 755 million shares traded. Composite volume approached 3.4 billion.

The yield on the 10 year Treasury note used to figure mortgage rates and other consumer loans rose 7 basis points to 2.3021 percent, and the U.S. dollar rose against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners, hitting a seven-year high against the Japanese yen.

Dollar-denominated commodities including oil and gold fell, with crude futures for January delivery falling 97 cents, or 1.5 percent, to a five-year low of $65.84 a barrel and gold futures for February dropping $17.30, or 1.4 percent, to $1,190.40 an ounce.

Just Placed This Trade

BTO SPX Jan 2015 1930 Put

STO SPX Jan 2015 1935 Put

STO SPX Jan 2015 2170 Call

BTO SPX Jan 2015 2175 Call

.40 Credit or 8% for 43 days

86.54% of maximum profit

Be sure and close or adjust trade if one of the short options delta exceeds .25.

Stock On The Radar

Motorcar Parts (MPAA) reported their sixth consecutive positive earnings surprise in mid-November. The main driver behind the earnings growth was new business wins for their wheel hub and brake master cylinder business.

This company is a leading manufacturer of replacement alternators and starters for imported and domestic cars and light trucks in the United States and Canada. The company's full line of alternators and starters are remanufactured for vehicles imported from Japan, Germany, Sweden, France, and Korea.

Motorcar Parts also saw growth in several other key areas during the quarter. First, net sales increased 7.1% YoY, Adjusted net income almost doubled from last year, and Adjusted gross profit saw a 37.5% increase. According to CEO Selwyn Joffe, they have seen "strong interest in our new product introductions and solid growth in rotating electrical. An aging vehicle population, lower fuel costs, and positive operating synergies support our growth potential." 

Q2 2015 was the sixth consecutive positive earnings surprise by this company, and not only did they beat expectations they crushed them. Over the past four quarters Motorcar Parts has posted an average positive earnings surprise of 35.24%.

Motorcar Parts of America's new Brake Master Cylinder sales generated $2.7 million while only coming online in late July of this year. Further, organic growth of Rotating Electrical was 9.8% YoY, while organic growth and Wheel Hub sales grew 69.8% YoY. This indicates strong demand for Motorcar Parts new products and existing parts as well.

This is one stock that should be on your radar and a part of your core portfolio at the present time.

Stocks Down, Up, and Finish Lower

U.S. stocks fell on Thursday, with benchmarks not far from record highs, as investors considered reports that the European Central Bank would consider a broad-based package of quantitative easing in January and awaited the monthly jobs report.

Comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi had thrown cold water on hopes the ECB would begin a program of sovereign-debt purchases called quantitative easing. The central bank held interest rates at a record low.

Stocks reversed briefly higher, however, after Bloomberg News cited two euro-zone central bank officials familiar with the deliberations in reporting the ECB would consider additional stimulus measure in early 2015.

After a 97-point fall, the Dow Jones Industrial Average took a brief tour in positive terrain, hitting an intraday record of 17,937.96, before finishing down 12.52 points, or 0.1 percent, at 17,900.10.  Chevron led blue-chip losses that extended to 17 of 30 components.

The S&P 500 also rose to an intraday peak before ending with a loss of 2.41 points, or 0.1 percent, at 2,071.92, with energy hardest hit of its 10 major industry groups in decline.

The Nasdaq dropped 5.04 points, or 0.1 percent, to 4,769.44.

For every share three shares rising, roughly five fell on the New York Stock Exchange, where almost 799 million shares traded. Composite volume approached 3,.4 billion.

Crude oil futures for January delivery fell 57 cents at $66.81 a barrel; the February gold futures contract dropped $1.00 to $1,207.70 an ounce.

The U.S. dollar edged lower against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners; the yield on the benchmark 10 year Treasury note fell 4 basis points to 2.2376 percent.

Thursday's U.S. reports had the Labor Department reporting fewer Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, with jobless claims falling by 17,000 to 297,000.

On Friday, the government releases the November payrolls report.

Markets Open Lower

U.S. stocks are down this morning, with benchmarks retreating from records, after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the central bank would wait until early next year to consider whether further moves to stimulate the economy are needed.
Draghi's comments threw cold water on hopes the ECB would begin a program of sovereign-debt purchases called quantitative easing. The central bank held interest rates at a record low and began buying asset-backed securities and covered bonds at past meetings.
Fewer Americans filing for unemployment benefits last week, with jobless claims falling by 17,000 to 297,000, the Labor Department said.
On Friday, the government releases the November payrolls report.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 76.68 points, or 0.4 percent, to 17,835.94, with General Electric and Chevron leading blue-chip declines that extended to 24 of 30 components.
The S&P 500 shed 8.12 points, or 0.4 percent, to 2,066.21, with energy hardest hit and technology the sole advancing sector of its 10 major industry groups.
The Nasdaq fell 2.71 points, or nearly 0.1 percent, to 4,771.76.
Erasing gains, the Nasdaq Composite shed 4 points, or 0.1 percent, to 4,770.44.
For every share rising, three fell on the New York Stock Exchange, where 155 million shares traded as of 10:40 a.m. Eastern. Composite volume neared 725 million.
Crude oil futures delivery fell 68 cents, or 1 percent, to $66.71 a barrel; the February gold futures contract dropped 50 cents to $1,208.20 an ounce.
The U.S. dollar edged lower against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners; the yield on the benchmark 10 year Treasury note fell a basis point to 2.2667 percent.

In World New This Morning

Employment gains were widespread across districts, according to the Fed's Beige Book survey, though wage gains remained muted except for a few fields facing worker shortages. The optimistic tone of the report seemingly sets the stage for the FOMC to remove the "considerable time" language from the policy statement when it meets on December 16-17. Next up is tomorrow's Nonfarm Payroll report, and the expectation is for 230K in job gains and a steady unemployment rate of 5.8%.

European stocks are up marginally ahead of the ECB's policy decision due at 7:45 ET. No changes in interest rates are expected, but ECB President Draghi last month pledged to raise euro area inflation "as fast as possible." Markets will be looking to his press conference at 8:30 ET to see if Draghi has been able to move forward with convincing the reluctant Germans about the need for outright QE.

Western nations would have imposed sanctions on Russia even without the Ukraine conflicts, said President Putin in his annual speech in front of both houses of parliament. The policy of the West, he said, is to hold Russia back. He called for tax breaks for small businesses, a doubling of road construction, and amnesty for capital brought back to Russia. As for the ruble, its weakening means more inflation in the short term, he says, but also makes Russian companies more competitive internationally. The currency fell further as he spoke, with one dollar now buying 53.453 rubles.

Gasoline prices fell to a four year low and sub-$2 per gallon was seen for the first time since July 2010. The $1.99 price was spotted at an Oncue Express station in Oklahoma City, and yesterday's national average of $2.74 per gallon was a whopping $0.51 lower than a year ago, saving consumers about $200M per day. According to AAA, gas stations have yet to catch up to the recent plunge in crude oil prices and drivers can expect another $0.15-$0.20 in price declines in coming weeks.

China's Shanghai Composite soared another 4.3% overnight, the largest gain in two years. The move brings the index's advance to 19% over the past month, the most among 93 global markets tracked by Bloomberg. The rally coincides with not just a rate cut by the PBOC, but the opening up of trading of mainland stocks to the rest of the globe, and volumes are nearly double what they were in the previous month.

Stocks Maintain Record Highs

U.S. stocks rallied into the close, with the Dow and S&P 500 ending the day at records amid encouraging economic reports on Wednesday.
Earlier, stocks held modest gains on the release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book that said the economy continues to expand.
The energy sector rose about 1 percent and was a leader on the S&P 500, helped by stabilization in oil prices and a report that showed a drop in oil supply for the last week.
In the morning, the ISM services index beat expectations with a leap to a three-month high of 59.3 for November. Before the open, ADP report on private payrolls showed sector employment is keeping up its recent pace in November, although the 208,000 new jobs was a shade below expectations.
U.S. non farm productivity grew a bit faster than initially thought in the third quarter, while sharp downward revisions to compensation pointed to muted wage inflation that should give the Federal Reserve room to keep interest rates low for a while.
Weekly jobless claims come out on Thursday, and the all-important jobs report is due on Friday.
Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said the Fed's preferred inflation measure is running somewhat below its longer-term target but is above the level that should stoke concerns of deflation.
The Federal Reserve is only in the early stages of developing a set of macroprudential tools to ensure financial stability and faces limits because of the divided nature of U.S. financial sector oversight, Fed governor Lael Brainard said on Wednesday at a seminar on financial stability at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 32.94 points, or 0.18 percent, at 17,912.49, withUnitedHealth leading gains among 17 blue chips and American Express the greatest laggard.
The S&P 500 gained 7.78 points, or 0.38 percent, at 2,074.33, with materials leading sector gains and consumer staples the greatest of three laggards.
The Nasdaq closed up 18.66 points, or 0.39 percent, at 4,774.47.
Two stocks advanced for every decliner on the New York Stock Exchange, with an exchange volume of 757 million and a composite volume of 3.5 billion in the close.
The CBOE Volatility Index, widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded above 12.
The Dow Jones Transports gained nearly 1 percent.
The benchmark 10 year Treasury note yield fell to 2.28 percent. The U.S. dollar touched five-and-a-half-year highs against major world currencies.
Crude oil futures for January delivery settled up 50 cents at $67.38 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold futures for February closed up $9.30 to $1,208.70 an ounce.

Markets Little Changed Pending News

U.S. stocks opened little changed from Tuesday's close, which had the Dow at a record high, as investors weigh a slew of data expected over the next two days.

The European Central Bank is expected to discuss monetary policy on Thursday.

U.S. stock index futures point to a flat to slightly lower start on Wednesday, as a record Wall Street finish on Tuesday fueled gains in Asian and European trade. 

The day is a busy one for U.S. data. First out was the ADP report on private payrolls,  showing sector employment is keeping up its recent pace in November, though the 208,000 new jobs was a shade below expectations.

U.S. non farm productivity grew a bit faster than initially thought in the third quarter, while sharp downward revisions to compensation pointed to muted wage inflation  that should give the Federal Reserve room to keep interest rates low for a while.

Other data for Wednesday include the ISM services survey and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report on the economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened down 10.1 points, or 0.06 percent, at 17,867.58, with P&P the greatest decliner and Caterpillar leading the 12 blue-chip advancers.

The S&P 500 gained 0.77 points, or 0.04 percent, at 2,067.20, with energy and industrials leading sector gains and telecommunications the greatest of four sector decliners.

The Nasdaq opened up 2.16 points, or 0.05 percent, at 4,758.95.

Eight stocks advanced for every five decliners on the New York Stock Exchange, with an exchange volume of 59.1 million and a composite volume of 158.7 million in the open.

The benchmark 10 year Treasury note yield rose to 2.30 percent. The U.S. dollar traded at highs against major world currencies.

US Markets Strong Again

U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, with the Dow striking another peak, as investors cheered better-than-expected November sales from Ford Motor, General Motor, and Fiat Chrysler.  Remember me pimping Ford a couple of months ago?  Well, I bought it.  Hope you did as well.
U.S. automobile sales rose 4.6 percent in November to 1.3 million, Autodata reported, with the auto sales rate coming to 17.2 million last month in the strongest pace for the month since 2003.
The auto sales "indicate the economy's momentum remains on track, and is moving along, basically on all fronts," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Rockwell Global Capital.
Stocks maintained gains after the Commerce Department reported construction spending rose 1.1 percent in October.
BP climbed on unconfirmed talk of a takeover bid for the U.K. energy company from Royal Dutch Shell; RadioShack fell as the electronics retailer rejected claims it had breached covenants on a term loan from Harbinger Group unit Salus Capital Partners.
Apple fell, extending losses that followed its largest single-day decline since September.
Energy costs were on the retreat again, with crude futures for January delivery falling $2.12, or 3.1 percent, to $66.88 a barrel.
At or near session highs, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 102.75 points, or 0.6 percent, to 17,879.55, with Chevron and Exxon Mobil lately leading blue-chip gains that extended to 21 of 30 components.
The S&P 500 advanced 13.11 points, or 0.6 percent, to 2,066.55, with energy pacing sector gains and telecommunications the sole laggard of its 10 major industries.
The Nasdaq gained 28.46 points, or 0.6 percent, to 4,755.81.
For every share falling, two rose on the New York Stock Exchange, where 813 million shares traded. Composite volume neared 3.7 billion.
The CBOE Volatility Index, one measure of investor uncertainty, fell 10.1 percent to 12.85.
The yield on the 10 year Treasury note used to figure mortgage rates and other consumer loans added 6 basis points to 2.2923 percent.
The U.S. dollar rose against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners and dollar-denominated commodities including oil and gold fell, with the gold futures contract for February down $18.70, or 1.5 percent, to $1,199.40 an ounce.
The European Central Bank is slated to meet on its monetary policy later in the week in Frankfort, with investors waiting to see whether the ECB opts to purchase government bonds in widening its effort to stimulate the euro-zone economy.

Looking For An Oil Play? Check out EOG

EOG is one of the largest independent oil and natural gas companies in the United States. With premium acreage in the Eagle Ford, Bakken and the Delaware Basin, EOG has been the fastest-organic growing major oil producer in the US. Over the past 5 years, the company has increased daily oil production by a CAGR of 39%, making EOG the largest crude oil producer in the lower 48. Even more impressive is the company has achieved this remarkable growth while maintaining strict financial discipline by working within its operating cash flow.
EOG's performance over the past several years is nothing short of amazing. Combined with some of the best acreage in the Eagle Ford and Delaware Basin and the company's technical expertise at successfully drilling wells, EOG has emerged as the leader in the US shale oil revolution. Over the last 4 years, the company has the highest annual organic crude oil growth in its large cap E&P peer group. Sustaining high-double digit year-over-year growth is easy for a small cap E&P company, but when you're talking about high-double digit growth on over 200 MBbld, it's clear how efficient and effective EOG has become.
For E&P companies to stay relevant and successful, they must continually increase production, while keeping costs down. The past few weeks have been extremely hard on oil producers, as the price of oil is in a free fall. The OPEC's recent decision not to cut production is a clear sign that they intend to keep the pressure on US oil producers in the hope that any sustained low oil prices will cripple the industry, so they can maintain their market dominance. While some US producers with ugly balance sheets and high production costs may suffer and eventually go out of business, EOG is a model of efficiency that has evolved to endure anything OPEC can throw at it. Aside from being one of the largest independent oil producers in the shale industry, EOG is also one of the low-cost producers.
EOG is the model company in the US shale industry. It has maintained the highest organic growth relative to peers, and is also one of the lowest-cost producers. In addition, EOG has one of the cleanest balance sheets, with $5.9 billion in outstanding debt and $1.5 billion in cash. The company has a low net debt-to-total capitalization at 20%, and continues to work to lower it. EOG also has some of the best acreage assets in the Eagle Ford and Delaware Basin.
What really sets EOG apart from its competitors is its efficiency. The fact that the company can produce a 10% after-tax return on all of its US assets at $50/barrel, and that its largest oil producing assets can produce a 10% after-tax return at $40/barrel, should help investors sleep at night.
The sharp decline in oil prices has scared away traders and investors with short time frames, giving long-term investors a great entry point. At $86/share, EOG is cheap. It has a P/E under 16 and an EV/EBITDA of just over 6. In the short term, the price will remain volatile, but any drop can be viewed as a way to lower your position price. Fundamentally, EOG is an extremely strong company that has the ability to endure a price war. Investors shouldn't be scared away by the current conditions. They should look at EOG as a best-of-breed company with a strong history of industry-leading performance and a management team dedicated to returning value to shareholders in a financially responsible matter. In my previous articles, I encouraged investors to wait for a pullback before buying Lockheed Martin, 3M, Automatic Data Processing and Becton, Dickinson, but I believe investors can pull the trigger on EOG at any time. If oil continues to fall, investors can increase their position knowing the company will remain profitable and a good long-term play.  The stock also appears to be oversold and is trading near support levels.

U.S. Markets to Open Higher

U.S. and Brent crude oil, as well as gold, rallied overnight, following weeks of declines. This helped mining and commodity stocks post strong gains early on Tuesday, with an additional boost coming from reports that the Chinese central bank might cut bank reserve requirements.
Reuters reported early on Tuesday that the People's Bank of China might unveil a cut to banks' reserve requirements on the back of recent weak economic data.  China mainland shares closed at a fresh three-year peak, resuming their gains after snapping a seven-session winning streak on Monday. Official factory activity data earlier this week fell to an eight-month low, prompting talk of further stimulus.  If you want to play the China large cap stocks, you can go long the ETF FXI.
In the U.S. on Monday,  New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley said falling oil prices would boost income growth in the U.S. This echoed words from International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde, who said on Monday that lower energy prices would help accelerate economic growth to 3.5 percent next year, according to the Wall Street Journal.
No major earnings are due on Tuesday. Economic data out include construction spending for October, which is expected to increase.

Weird Day For Apple

Apple acted in a peculiar fashion today.  Shares were down as much as 6.4%, closing off about $4.00.  There was no real news on the stock that would have caused this type of a drop.  Apple's market cap is currently at nearly $700 billion.  The volume was rather strong as well.

Futures Pointed Lower

Dow futures are off 63 points, as ratings agency Moody's downgraded Japan's credit rating and commodity prices continued to tumble.

The only major economic data due from the U.S. is the ISM Index for November, expected at 10 a.m.  The markets have lacked any real stimulus to move them off current levels.

Earnings of note include online payment service MOL Global's rescheduled results. Its Nasdaq-listed shares tumbled when its CFO resigned only one month after the firm went public.

Earlier in the day, Moody's cut Japans credit rating to A1 from AA3, shortly after the country's benchmark stock index, the Nikkei 225, closed at a seven-year high. The credit ratings agency cited doubts as to whether Japan could meet its deficit-cutting goals and the timing and effectiveness of its growth-enhancing policy measures.  Things in Japan are a bit of a mess at the moment.  Their rising stock market is soley the function of easy money.  

Black Friday A Bust For Retailers

The National Retail Federation estimated on Sunday that retail sales over the full Thanksgiving weekend will show a decline of 11.3 percent from a year earlier, to $50.9 billion.

The NRF said the average shopper's spending was down to $380.95 from $407.02, as early holiday promotions and a continued surge in online shopping changed the way consumers shopped this year.

Looks like online sales have cannibalized store traffic this season.  Who could blame someone for not wanting to wait in line and fight purchasers who act like hyenas fighting over the last scrap of food?

Russia Will Not Cut Oil Production

OPEC's decision to maintain production in the wake of falling oil prices has forced Russia not to proceed with its own cuts, according to Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov.  With oil and natural gas sales representing half of its budget, the fall in prices has made an even bigger dent in Russia's economy, which is already teetering on the brink of recession.  Remember when that country was an economic powerhouse?

USC 49 Notre Dame 14

Fight On!!!

Black Friday Numbers

Black Friday A Hit Online

Shoppers' growing aversion to the retail stampede known as Black Friday may be powering a surge in online shopping, data from a retail tracking firm suggested on Saturday, aided by a flurry of promotions and mobile incentives.
Data from Custora said Internet sales were up 20.6 percent on Black Friday compared to a year ago. If the data holds up, Friday's online sales may even surpass 2013's Cyber Monday to become "the biggest shopping day in U.S. history."
Custora added a caveat, however: Monday's cyber sales are "all but certain" to beat Black Friday's web-fueled surge.
The report comes as more consumers, perhaps growing weary of the early bird sales and the skirmishes that break out over them, are resorting to the web to satisfy their holiday shopping needs.
This year, social upheaval may also be playing a modest role. Protests over the decision not to indict a Ferguson, Missouri police officer over the shooting of an unarmed teen impeded traffic in key U.S. cities and disrupted some Black Friday shopping.
The firm noted that average order value fell 2.3 percent from 2013, underscoring how online shoppers were slightly more frugal – or at least hunting for value.
Still, the proliferation of smartphones and tablets had a noticeable impact on Internet shopping, according to Custora. Their data showed that mobile orders accounted for almost one third of online shopping. That was an improvement over the 22.5 percent who used mobile devices to shop on Black Friday 2013.
Finally, Custora said Apple devices still rule the roost. Of those using a handheld device to shop, the maker of the iPad and iPhone accounted for nearly 77 percent of those sales, while Android-powered devices had a market share of less than 23 percent. However, Apple's share of mobile sales tumbled sharply from the 83.4 percent it had on Black Friday 2013.

Your Credit Report

How long does stuff stay on your credit report?  It depends on the information.  Foreclosures, judgements, and collections will stay on for 7 years.  Bankruptcies stick for 10 years.  It's critical that when the statute of limitation expires, you notify the credit bureau to have it removed.

Markets Are Higher

I guess some investors have equities on their Black Friday shopping list.  The markets are up once again as the price of oil goes through the floor.  Predictably, transportation companies are the beneficiaries.

How Are You Spending Black Friday?

While many Americans are battling the crowds on the year's most celebrated shopping day, I'm researching how the average family throws away money each year.  The irony is more than obvious.  Hope you had a blessed Thanksgiving and had much to be thankful for.

ECB Ready To Act

The European Central Bank will be able to gauge in the first quarter of next year whether it needs to start buying sovereign bonds to stimulate the euro zone economy, announced ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio this morning. The new comments are the clearest indication yet to the exact timing of future QE. The ECB has already begun buying covered bonds and ABSs, aiming to increase the size of its balance sheet to levels seen in early 2012 - around €1T higher than its level today.

Looks like QE all over again!  You know what that did for the markets here in the U.S.  It should be good for the European markets as well.

Markets Stuck In Neutral

Orders for durable goods and applications for unemployment benefits both rose this morning.  The market didn't care.  There is no real catalyst to move the market in either direction at the present time.  It's like sailing in the doldrums.  Of course, this will change.  There is always a storm looming just over the horizon.

Markets Close Unchanged

The markets were virtually unchanged today.  Oil futures did drop over $1.50 a barrel which is good for cheap gas.  There are no real catalysts to move the markets these days.  Butterflies and bull put spreads on indexes are working like a champ.

Gross domestic product was up 3.9%, up over the 3.5% analysts estimated.  The U.S. economy continues to gain strength.  That's good for the economy as well as the rest of us.  Consumer confidence was down slightly, but still ver strong at 88.7.

My First Blog

This is my first blog, and as such, I thought I should let those of you following me, know what to expect.  You will find a combination of stock market news, financial strategies, personal development ideas , and general observations.  I will spare you with what time I ate breakfast or went to the mall.  If you care about such things, you need to follow someone else.  I will only post things that I truly believe carry some equity with the average person.  Sound reasonable?

Apple set an all time high today at $118.62.  It's going higher.  Do with that information what you will.